Turkish Referendum – Yes 58% No 42% – So What Happens Next?

I know this blog is about Bulgaria, but I still keep a weather eye on what’s happening in Turkey. It’s just over the border, we have many friends there and it was our first second home so to speak, so we are very interested in the political developments there.

This referendum result really came as no surprise to me and my husband. The spin doctors have been hard at work for months and the feeding frenzy increased over the past week, resulting in a 77% turnout at the polls, with 23% abstaining -   a very high turnout. But what does this vote mean, what’s it all about?

To understand that, you first need a bit of background. I’ll try to keep it short.

The current Turkish government is controlled by the AK Party, a party largely made up of people who formerly belonged to pro-religious parties in Turkey. I, like many of my Turkish contemporaries, cannot believe that people who previously strongly supported changing the system of government to one which would become a  religiously inclined Turkey, suddenly went to bed one night and woke up the next day as progressive liberals…so many of us have been deeply suspicious of the real agenda the AKP has from the start of their taking office.

Since being in power, this government has banned more websites than ever before; it has tried to overturn the pro-secular headscarf law – a complicated subject that European media in the main failed to grasp the implications of, as they mostly represented it as a human rights issue, whereas most Turks saw it as a political stance. The AKP came very close to being closed down by the courts on the grounds of it being a pro- religious party – and therefore anti the secular government ideals – as enshrined by Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish republic.

Only recently, the Prime Minister, Recep Taryip Erdogan, held a press conference at which he berated media bosses for not controlling what their staff wrote about him and his government – and told bosses they should sack their staff if they didn’t toe the line. He later denied this, although it was actually televised.The media is so tightly controlled that it is almost impossible to get an unbiased and whole view of Turkish politics, because it is out and out dangerous to be openly critical. More than 400 journalists were imprisoned in Turkey in the last 18 months….

Turkey’s success in it’s relationship with Europe has largely been due to it’s unique position, both geographically and ideologically. A secular government, with a Muslim population, a country doing a balancing act between the Sharia governed countries of Iran and Iraq, (which it borders to the East) Syria to the South and the Balkans to the West. Nevertheless, there is still a great deal of opposition to allowing Turkey entry into the EU. in these post 9/11 times, and with the increasing Islamification of Europe, people are nervous at the prospect of admitting 80 million Turkish Muslims into the Christian Club…. plus Turkey has an agricultural and manufacturing sector – unwanted competition.

Turkey is a long standing member of NATO, and has many ties to the West, part of it’s land border is IN the West (Gallipolli and the City of Edirne are on the same land mass as Greece and Bulgaria) so Turkey has always had a literal toehold in Europe.European politicians have held the view that a benign Turkey, with it’s secular government and pro-western ideals was a good buffer state between Europe and what is perceived as scary Islam.

This referendum was for voters to say yes or no to changes in the constitution, last changed in 1980 by the military junta then in charge post coup.The new amendments chiefly allow the government to appoint Supreme Court and Constitutional Court judges – giving the government the controlling hand all the way to the top court in the land.The very same courts which came oh so close to closing down the ruling party, a court where already, AKP appointed judges are placed, and thanks to this referendum, are soon to be joined by more AKP appointees.

And if the highest court in the land is controlled by the government, where do you turn for impartial justice?

There have already been -  what to many -  are disturbing changes; a no music after midnight law; many towns in Turkey are now”dry” as in other Muslim countries; religious schools are getting a lot more government aid than previously; although the wearing of full religious garb is actually prosecutable under the law in Turkey, more and more the head to toe cover up is increasing. I witnessed this myself on a recent trip back to the Aegean coast. In a resort where previously no burka’s would have been seen, I saw at least a few dozen. My Turkish friends find this very disturbing, and several of them commented on the influx of the religiously dressed saying, “These are not Turks.”

You might say that this is all about basic human rights, and all about choice, freedom of expression and worship, but, Turkey is a secular state, religion is not supposed to be part of politics, and lots of Turkish people are therefore very suspicious of anything that smacks of pro religious policy. True secularism – religious tolerance – has been a factor in Turkish life ever since the Ottoman times – but much of what is happening now, with religious garb being more and more prominent, is viewed by all pro secular Turks with deep suspicion – if this now, what later, is what many are asking?

Certainly, in the Marmara coastal region, people do not want to see a policy of conforming to the  strict Islamic codes seen in other, less progressive Muslim countries..The result of the referendum showed that it was people of the Marmara region who came out most strongly with a no vote – the most western looking and one of the most prosperous parts of the nation, and the part most tourists will see, but this is not by any means the whole Turkey. Go to the east of this vast country and there is a whole different culture, way of thought and way of life. A code those in the western parts of Turkey do not want to emulate, as it is strongly akin to the religious politics in Iran and Iraq.

Turkish foreign policy too has changed quite radically of late; Turkey is now helping to provide Iran with enriched uranium, and diplomatic relations with Israel, of which Turkey was long a supporter,are tense too.Whether you agree or disagree with Israel’s policies or with Iran having enriched uranium, for a country which is allegedly trying to be part of Europe and European policy making to stand against Israel, with it’s strong ties to the USA, and to stand with Iran, and against the embargo placed by the UN – these are acts of supreme political arrogance – and not acts of diplomacy – and rightly or wrongly these actions are causing many to look at Turkey in a new light.

The government keeps insisting that all is well in the state of Turkey and the economy is growing etc, and indeed the AKP seems to have a lot of support, mainly because it has brought stable government to a country which, over the years, has been plagued by inflation, deflation, bank collapses, and military coups. It is also praised for it’s road building and infrastructure improvements – which are impressive – but these are just surface changes, a sleight of hand to disguise the true agenda of the government according to those who are wary of the AKP.

The enormous increase in food and utility prices, the REAL hike in inflation, the unemployment rate, lack of literacy overall across the country despite there being thousands of university graduates struggling to find employment at the other end of the scale – these all tell a different story to the success story touted by the government too.

I predict that there will be a lot of changes taking place over the next two years and that they will start in the next few weeks. There is a general election in 2011, and I am sure this government will use the time between now and then to consolidate it’s position and it’s power and get rid of as many of it’s opponents as it can.

I am just waiting for the slurs and scandal making – or conspiracies about plots and so on which are such a big feature of Turkish politics – to start being heard about the (popular) opposition.

I’ll keep you posted.

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